From Farm to Table: The Indonesian Agri-Food Economy in 2025 and the Road to Competitiveness
Commissioned by ASEAN Food and Beverage Alliance (AFBA) and Food Industry Asia (FIA)
This report assesses the Indonesian agri-food system, from agricultural production and food and beverage (F&B) manufacturing, to the wholesale, retail, and hospitality distribution networks that brings F&B to market.
Our latest research reveals the sector’s scale and importance. In 2025, it contributed USD 448.2 billion to the Indonesian economy, nearly one-third of national GDP, and supported 68.3 million jobs, which represents close to half of total employment.
Operating conditions faced by local agri-businesses are increasingly constrained. Ongoing trade tensions and US tariffs on Indonesian agri-food exports are raising costs and uncertainty. In a worst-case scenario, escalating tariffs could leave global GDP 2.3% below baseline over the next five years, intensifying demand-side pressures.
The study highlights strategic opportunities the sector can tap into amid these challenges. An expanding network of trade agreements helps diversify export markets, while strengthening the logistics infrastructure and better integration of agri-food clusters and partnerships can lower input costs and lift productivity.
Over the long-term, delivering the priorities set out in the National Medium-Term Development Plan RPJMN 2025-2029 and advancing ease‑of‑doing‑business reforms will help businesses plan and invest with confidence. Download the report to learn more about how Indonesia can strengthen its food security, deepen integration into regional and global value chains, and drive more inclusive growth.
The experts behind the research
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Qi Yu ChanEconomist, Economic Consulting, Asia
Economist, Economic Consulting, Asia
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James LambertDirector of Economic Consulting, Asia
James is the Director of Oxford Economics’ economic consulting services in Asia.
James moved to this role from Oxford Economics’ London office, where he headed up a team dedicated to exploring the economic impact of technology. He delivered high profile studies on the growth of the digital economy, the impact of automation and the implications for the labour market.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics, James spent over six years in the Government Economics Service. He worked in economics teams of the Cabinet Office, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the Department for Transport. There, he gained experience in microeconomic analysis and impact assessment as well as international macroeconomics, economic risk analysis and energy security. In the FCO, James spent three years working on economic issues in East and South East Asia. He also previously worked for the International Labour Organization.
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Thang Nguyen-QuocAssociate Director, Macro Consulting
Thang Nguyen-Quoc, Ph.D. leads Oxford Economics Asia’s Macro consulting team in Singapore. In this capacity, he supports clients with carrying out bespoke forecast and scenario modelling, as well as thought-leadership reports on trade and green transition. His core expertise is in policy analysis related to international trade and investment. His doctoral thesis evaluated the impacts of digitalization, protectionism and regionalism on the trade patterns of developing countries, using a range of econometric techniques.
Prior to joining OE in 2022, Thang spent a decade delivering flagship economic reports on Asian and African economies at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris. He also worked in various roles at the World Bank, National Academy of Social Sciences (US), and Vietnam Commercial Bank. He got a Ph.D. in International Economics from University Paris-Dauphine, M.Sc. from Barcelona School of Economics and B.A. from Ohio Wesleyan University.
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