{"id":127903,"date":"2025-12-10T16:39:45","date_gmt":"2025-12-10T16:39:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.oxfordeconomics.com\/?p=127903"},"modified":"2026-01-28T01:06:05","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T01:06:05","slug":"us-economic-outlook-2026-exceptionalism-vs-fragmentation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/am.meltedhouse.digital\/zh-hans\/resource\/us-economic-outlook-2026-exceptionalism-vs-fragmentation\/","title":{"rendered":"2026\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u77bb\uff1a\u5206\u5316\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u589e\u957f"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"gb-container gb-container-1f50ef15 break-out alignfull oe-section\">\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-005c9b42 oe-container oe-link-no-underline oe-breadcrumb\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\"><ul class=\"uk-breadcrumb oe-breadcrumb\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/am.meltedhouse.digital\/zh-hans\/\" alt=\"Home Page\">Home<\/a><\/li><li><a 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class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u5316\u52a0\u5267\u3002<\/strong>\u6c34\u6da8\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u4f7f\u5f97\u6240\u6709\u8239\u9ad8\u2014\u2014\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72ec\u7279\u6027\u5c06\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e5\u76ca\u5206\u5316\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u663e\u73b0\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u72b6\u51b5\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u89c2\u5bdf\u89c6\u89d2\uff1a\u5c31\u4e1a\u8005\u4e0e\u5931\u4e1a\u8005\u3001\u5927\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e0e\u5c0f\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\u3001\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u4e0e\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u6240\u611f\u77e5\u7684\u5883\u51b5\u5c06\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6d3b\u529b\u51cf\u9000\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u201c\u65e0\u5c31\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u201d\u7684\u5c40\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u66f4\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u672c\u662f\u62b5\u5fa1\u8870\u9000\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9632\u706b\u5899\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u8d8b\u4e8e\u677e\u52a8\u3002<\/strong>2026\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\uff0c\u5173\u7a0e\u5f71\u54cd\u5c06\u9010\u6e10\u6d88\u9000\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u901a\u80c0\u653e\u7f13\u6b65\u4f10\u52a0\u5feb\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u4fdd\u6301\u4e2d\u6027\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u901a\u80c0\u5fc3\u7406\u503c\u5f97\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u2014\u2014\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8f83\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u662f\u540e\u75ab\u60c5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5e38\u6001\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u77ed\u671f\u5f02\u5e38\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AI\u6295\u8d44\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u529b\uff0c\u975eAI\u8bbe\u5907\u652f\u51fa\u540c\u6b65\u6269\u5f20\u3002<\/strong>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u5c06\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8eAI\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6d88\u9000\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u503a\u5238\u5229\u5dee\u6536\u7a84\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u4e2d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u6fc0\u52b1\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u90fd\u5c06\u63a8\u52a8\u975eAI\u9886\u57df\u7684\u8bbe\u5907\u6295\u8d44\u52a0\u901f\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u65b0\u8d38\u6613\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9636\u6bb5\u3002<\/strong>\u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u8d77\u4f0f\u6ce2\u52a8\u5728\u6240\u96be\u514d\uff0c\u4f46\u300a\u7f8e\u58a8\u52a0\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u91cd\u65b0\u8c08\u5224\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a2026\u5e74\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u5c06\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u4e2d\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6b63\u8bd5\u56fe\u4ee5\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b2\u51fb\u6700\u5c0f\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5b9e\u73b0\u201c\u8131\u94a9\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u95f4\u5fae\u5999\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u5c06\u5f71\u54cd\u5168\u7403\u683c\u5c40\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u586b\u5199\u8868\u683c\u4e0b\u8f7d\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u89e3\u9501\u5b8c\u6574\u6d1e\u5bdf\u3002<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<hr class=\"km-hr uk-margin-top uk-margin-bottom\"\/>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-81340f14\">\n\n<h5 class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-83701788 gb-headline-text oe-text-500\">\u60a8\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5185\u5bb9\u611f\u5174\u8da3<\/h5>\n\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<hr class=\"km-hr uk-margin-top uk-margin-bottom\"\/>\n\n\n<div class=\"gb-container gb-container-b6ea9012\">\n\n<div class=\"gb-headline gb-headline-1e3e3d06 gb-headline-text\"><strong>Tags: <\/strong><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"m31__tags\"><a href=\"\/resource-hub\/?_selection_tag=key-themes-2026-zh-hans\" class=\"button button--tag\">Key themes 2026<\/a><a href=\"\/resource-hub\/?_selection_tag=monthly-resource-hub\" class=\"button button--tag\">monthly resource hub<\/a><a href=\"\/resource-hub\/?_selection_tag=%e4%ba%ba%e5%b7%a5%e6%99%ba%e8%83%bd\" class=\"button button--tag\">\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd<\/a><a href=\"\/resource-hub\/?_selection_tag=%e5%85%b3%e7%a8%8e-zh-hans\" class=\"button 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