Helping companies to understand the implications of macroeconomic, geopolitical, financial and climate change developments on private and public real estate performance.
The ‘liberation day’ tariffs have been postponed, but the existing tariffs and those likely forthcoming present significant downside risks for most Asian industrial real estate markets. Reduced business investment, weaker confidence, and risk-off sentiment alone will inflict a demand shock on industrial and logistics operators, with expansion plans likely on hold.
Housing will be a key battleground in May’s Federal Election, with both the incumbent Labor Government (ALP) and the Coalition (LNP) firming their stances in recent days.
Research Briefing Australia Faces Election risk, but migration stabilisation on track
Related Posts Downside risks for Asian industrial real estate markets The ‘liberation day’ tariffs have been postponed, but the existing tariffs and those likely forthcoming present significant downside risks for most Asian industrial real estate markets. Reduced business investment, weaker confidence, and risk-off sentiment alone will inflict a demand shock on industrial and logistics operators, … Read more
Oxford Economics is delighted to announce a significant product enhancement to its Real Estate Economics Service and Global Economic Model, with the addition of MSCI historic real estate index data.
After a year of transition in the commercial real estate cycle in 2024, we believe CRE is poised for a tentative revival in values.
The policy implications from a second Trump presidency are expected to affect US commercial real estate (CRE) through curbed immigration, tax cuts, and increased tariffs. However, CRE’s relative pricing to bond yields will probably most influence values in the short term.
Global CRE transaction volumes are near decade lows, but a convergence of powerful trends is set to ignite a strong rebound.
Our Global Relative Return Index (RRI) is unchanged from six months ago at 52.7 for 2025, signalling that we are still on course for a sustained pick-up in investment opportunities after the initial phase of the recovery this year.
Based on our analysis, most investors are likely to allocate heavily towards industrial and away from offices over the next five years.
Fundamental forces including demographics, Ai, geopolitics and climate change play a key role in building resilience into long-term CRE investment strategies.
Our research shows that advanced economies are generally better positioned for the critical megatrends. Australia, Singapore and the UK are the top three most resilient CRE markets, each with unique strengths.
Our Commercial Real Estate Megatrend Resilience Index evaluates the resilience of CRE markets in relation to four critical megatrends.
Infrastructure and natural resources have outperformed real estate funds over one-, three-, five- and ten-year timeframes.
In our recent real estate webinar, we showed that prices started to turn a corner. We predict industrial and retail will record the smallest value declines this year, and over the next five years, apartment and industrial are expected to record the strongest value growth on average. Both sectors are expected to reach their peak values of 2022 this decade.
Major cities in the emerging global south are becoming more specialised in office-using sectors, which currently account for more than 30% of total city GDP across the world, generating more than $15 trillion in 2024, and employing over 165 million jobs.
We believe that developed market real estate investment trusts (DM REITs) are poised for a sustained period of positive performance driven by attractive valuations, subdued development activity, and solid macro fundamentals. This is despite interest rates that are set to remain well above pre-pandemic norms.
In our recent virtual roundtable event for commercial real estate, we discussed our expectation for eurozone interest rate cuts in H2, starting this month, despite the recent uptick in inflation and negotiated wage data.
Our latest global relative return index (RRI) signals that risk-adjusted investment opportunities in commercial real estate (CRE) should start to emerge this year before becoming more widespread in 2025.
Office markets across China’s major cities continue to deteriorate after consecutive years of rising vacancy rates and falling rents. Vacancy rates are now 20%-40% across the major cities – the highest among all major global markets.
Our latest global relative return index (RRI) signals that risk-adjusted investment opportunities in commercial real estate (CRE) should start to emerge this year before becoming more widespread in 2025. At this point, our baseline expected returns move higher than required returns, pushing the global all-property index above the 50 mark.
