Geopolitical tensions, rising costs, and the outlook for US industry 

Is US industry heading for renewed cost pressures and stubbornly high borrowing rates, raising the risks to growth, or can spending by affluent consumers and businesses offset these headwinds?

Rising input costs and escalating geopolitical tensions are reshaping the U.S. industrial outlook. While AI infrastructure investment continues to support areas of rapid growth, the outbreak of geopolitical conflict has introduced new pressures through disruption to energy markets, supply chains, with impact on defence spending and the trajectory of business profits.

Join us to unpack:

• How rising costs are reshaping industrial performance: From energy and transportation to labour and financing, we assess which sectors are most exposed and which retain pricing power
• How disruptions to oil markets, trade routes, spending for defence/war, and global risk sentiment are feeding into our forecasts for US industries
• How will US energy producers respond to price volatility and supply disruption?
  Whether AI investment can continue to offset broader weakness: Will tech-led capex remain resilient, or begin to slow as costs and uncertainty rise?
• Which industries are most resilient into 2026: Identifying winners and losers across manufacturing, technology, logistics, energy, and services

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Speakers

Sebastien Tillett

Sebastien joined Oxford Economics in 2023 as a graduate working across freight and transport advisory consulting. His main area of experience is in providing data analysis on projects within the maritime/trade and transport industries.

Prior to working at Oxford Economics, Sebastien had technology roles at AMP and Macquarie Bank before completing a Master of Economics.

Economist

Joe Monahan

Joe is an Economist on the Global Industry Service at Oxford Economics. He is responsible for the sectoral forecasts of the extraction sector. Alongside that, he works on a number of bespoke projects with a focus on the United States.

Before joining Oxford Economics, he worked for two years as a consultant at Applied Economics Consulting Group in Texas. Joe holds a MA and BA in Economics from the University of Texas at Austin. He is fluent in English, Spanish, and French.

Economist/Data Scientist