War, Courts, and Free Trade – Who Wins and Who Loses

Seismic shocks are hitting global trade simultaneously – and the map is being redrawn in real time.

A war in the Middle East has shut down the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off a quarter of global energy exports and sending oil prices surging. The US Supreme Court has torn up the tariff rulebook, collapsing country-specific rates into a blanket levy that hands windfalls to China and Brazil while leaving former dealmakers out in the cold. Finally, a growing bloc of economies is countering US protectionism with new and expanded free trade agreements – even as they continue to put up barriers against China in the same breath.

In this webinar, our trade economists will cut through the noise and tell you what it all means for global goods flows, supply chains, and your business.

We will cover:
• The implications of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the impact on supply chains
• Winners and losers from the Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling and our outlook for US tariffs
• The EU-India FTA and EU-Mercosur deals: how new preferential corridors are reshaping trade flows over the next decade
• Our latest TradePrism forecasts – including revised outlooks for China, the US, India, and the GCC – and the key risks to watch

Whether you’re tracking exposure to energy supply chains, adjusting sourcing strategies, or stress-testing trade forecasts, this is the briefing you need.

This webinar is being held on our new platform, ON24. If you do not receive your confirmation email, please check your junk and spam folders.

Speakers

Ben Udy

Ben is a lead economist at Oxford Economics Australia working on the Australian Macroeconomic Service, and TradePrism. Prior to joining Oxford Economics ben has worked as a macroeconomic consultant in the private sector in Singapore and Australia and for the Treasury in New Zealand.

Lead Economist, OE Australia

Harry Murphy Cruise

Harry Murphy Cruise is the Head of Economic Research and Global Trade at Oxford Economics Australia. He leads the Australian Macroeconomic Service and global trade initiatives, including TradePrism. Harry frequently provides insights to major media outlets, including CNBC, BBC, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal. His research primarily focuses on global trade and investment flows, with particular interest in the challenges and opportunities of economic decoupling.

Harry holds a master’s degree in international and development economics from the Australian National University and a bachelor’s degree in arts and commerce from Monash University. He is a PhD candidate at ANU, exploring the role of China’s diverse households and firms in the country’s economic transition.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Harry was the Head of China and Australia Economics at Moody’s Analytics. He was previously responsible for Australian state and territory analysis at Deloitte Access Economics.

Head of Economic Research and Global Trade